Economists and politicians are bantering about a likely recession in the coming years. These are bad optics for some, stark truth for others, and dismissible news for optimists. To be honest, I can’t help but pay attention. My hunch is that more than a few are watching, especially as it relates to retirement, 401Ks and all that.
Listen, I’m no math major, but recessions are inevitable. Economies get bigger, get smaller, lurch back and forth and find their way. The numbers morph in weird ways. Straight lines only show up with certain kinds of depreciation. Things are too unpredictable and complex to follow a well charted course. We have to project, forecast, go with our gut. It’s like being a meteorologist: It’s probably going to rain, but maybe not. If I’m right, I’m good, but if I’m wrong, the uh… models were off. It’s like this: when you’re right 51% of the time, you’re wrong 49% of the time.Growth without some loss is impossible because economic systems need to correct themselves. Think of them like respiration. Breathe in (expand, grow) / breathe out (contract, shrink). It’s the nature of the free market.
Followers of Jesus don’t freak out over threats of bad news. Jesus tells us not to worry, so, when economists start wringing their hands, we don’t wring along. We stand firm. Of course, this way of living both ways. If a portfolio fattens up during the good times, we know better than to put our hope in money. We stand firm.
Of course there’s going to be a recession, because economic recessions follow economic expansion. And…?
The real question is: what are the people who claim hope fixated on? his, by the way, is a first-world problem and should be seen as such. Many of our sisters and brothers in the world don’t care about stocks because dinner — and where it might come from, if anywhere — is more pressing.
Just a thought. A sermon for myself, perhaps. I think I needed to hear it.